The game has game theoretical aspects. If I fear blocking, and Microsoft appears as if it is trying to provide a block from all .NET adopters, I will not accept .NET; Microsoft wants me to adopt .NET (with their excellent technical team on this and their accumulated know-how, it is reasonable to assume that they will always have the best implementation aspects on their platform, so .NET users are more likely than not users, who need Microsoft solutions, such as Windows Server, Azure, etc.), so it’s important that Microsoft shows that they do not interfere with Mono, but help in this (more importantly for SilverLight and MoonLight, who are fighting for space, non-HTML-RIA versus Adobe open-source market offers house and otherwise). And the easiest and most reliable way for MSFT to achieve this look is to make impossible not an obstacle, not just pretense.
Thus, the risks of implementing .NET (through an open source implementation): (a) Microsoft will erroneously calculate its strategy and scare future adoptive parents; or (b) the platform becomes so dominant that the optimal MSFT strategy comes down to blocking people (they are no longer afraid to scare people because they again completely own the dominant computing platform). Both options are, of course, opportunities (and if you think that [a] will happen, you should get a small supply of MSFT - if you think [b], you have to go the same way for a long time ;-), but none of they don't seem incredibly probable to me. For example, the players participating in the battle of the platform in the new computing segment of smartphones are apparently mainly Apple and Android, and RIM and Nokia are other important players, and MSFT is currently struggling to maintain relevance and momentum in the segment - while which may, of course, change, at present the prospects of MSFT "ownership of computing platforms" seem distant (given the growing importance of smartphones as a segment of computing platforms).
But as they say: you pay your money, you take your choice! -)
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