There are many “predict the future” in this question that no one can answer, so I will skip these parts.
As for the community, the community is small (this is a relatively new language), but is growing rapidly. You can get a decent idea of this from blogs on the Internet, such as Planet F # feed, or from questions in the F # tag here on SO, or from hubFS .
As for the new license, now you can do a lot of things that you could not do before. You can pack F # into the Mono distribution. You can write standalone F # tools / programs such as F # Web Snippets without resorting to ridiculous distortions so as not to violate the license (the current implementation of this tool does crazy extra work to bypass the old license). You can, well, you can do whatever you want; if you want to fork it all out, put it on github, get ten or one hundred friends to bang the code and make a F # clone for the JVM or something else, you can do it too.
Actually, I think it is most likely that in the near future it will happen that people will use the compiler source to write F # tools. If you like to evolve into emacs, then hey, now you can use all the existing F # compiler logic to easily create “go to definition” functionality when you press like Ctrl-Alt-Meta-G or something in like that (I don't know, use emacs). Or - holy crap, I can't believe I just remembered that - you could write a VS F # plugin that does what is shown here:
Is there an IDE that highlights structural syntaxes?
which I always wanted to do, but compiling F # requires using a heavy lift to get the structure of the parse tree. Oh boy, I need to take the time to do it now.
In any case, these are not all unicorns and roses; many people like to focus on “one-time sources” and “non-takes” of community support, which may not be ideal. But this is no different from the state of the world three days ago. Therefore, I will focus on what differs from three days ago, and with the new license there are some interesting possibilities for using compiler code to create some cool tools and, possibly, even increase the number of communities around these tools.