The decision is ultimately made only during installation. As you know, this depends on circumstances such as DLLs blocked by the simultaneously executed application, and therefore it is quite volatile.
There is no guarantee that you will not receive exit code 3010 after the actual installation is complete.
However, the exit code is not so closely related to the files used. It may also indicate the inability to stop the service or, possibly, some other temporary or permanent condition. You cannot find out if the service can be stopped until you try.
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