at the beginning of the year, when I made this decision, I used data on macrumors.com from March to help me determine where my users might appear.
the graph on this link shows a fairly steady and very slowly decreasing share of iOS 4. users. This is also 4 months.
they also acknowledge that if you sell apps, those who stick with iOS 4 are more likely to be the same as my parents who got an iPad and never updated or bought apps, or are too poor to allow themselves to switch to a more convenient one. a telephone, and perhaps it also pinches pennies.
in any case, a crude rule of thumb based on statistics on this site ... you are likely to give up somewhere between the 1 / 6th and 1 / 10th markets, and this share will be the most difficult part of the market to sell .
you need to decide how aggressive you should be, how much you’ll return to target iOS 4 users based on how much effort you will need to make to be backward compatible and worth it. for me, I created one new application that I was able to run on iOS 4.2, but it seemed to me that it would be too much, so I got stuck in iOS 5.
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