I'm 99% sure that you really see the UAC problem. There are several well-known scenarios in which Windows Vista or 7 (and presumably 8) will allow you to create a new file, but silently block the modification and return a "file locked" error message if you try.
Try temporarily disabling UAC (remember that you need to reboot for it to take effect) and starting the update with UAC disabled. If this fails, perform one more step and make sure that you run the updater from the command line with administrator privileges.
I think that the main reason is because the installer creates another process / thread / application that for some reason does not inherit the parental rights of the administrator, and does so in a way / context that causes Windows to silently block instead of providing you invitation to privilege escalation.
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