You can replay the merge. If it fails, it is not trivial. If this succeeds, compare the result with the previously performed merge. If both merge results are identical, it was trivial, otherwise there were manual settings.
However, this assumes that the reuse uses the same merge algorithm as the original merge. Different versions and configurations of Mercurial may contradict this assumption.
UPDATE
If you want to perform these checks before performing a merge, you can use the pre-merge, which “views” the merge (instead of replaying it later). On the hook, do the proposed merge automatically and check for conflicts. Conflicts are not potentially trivial, save the diff merge in a temporary file. Do not forget about working copy changes caused by automatic merging ( hg up -r . -C ). Then, when a person wants to make her actual merge, use the pre-commit hook to check if the manual merge is different from the automatic one stored in a temporary file. If it is different, a review is required.
However, although this should work in principle, IMHO is a kind of over-engineering.
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