I did what you offer, and I don’t see the Refresh button either.
The following is information on how I received the update.
I see three of my profiles (companynameProfile, Team Provisioning Profile and productnameProfile). The first and third expire in a couple of weeks. The second (and only the second) is marked as "managed by Xcode". The names of the profiles are displayed in a table with columns labeled “Provisioning Profile,” “Application ID,” “Status,” and “Actions.” The status for all three is Active. First, 1 and 3, in the column “Actions” there is “Download”, and the link “Change”. For 2 columns, gthe Actions only has a Download button.
There is not a single Refresh button / link (or Refresh) anywhere (and I used the view source too):
So, I thought ... click "Change" to # 3 ... two options: "Change" and "Duplicate". I selected Edit
There is still no update / update ... but there is a "Submit" button ... which does not work (it turns out that it looks gray, but this is not at all obvious ... poor user interface design).
I found that if you change something on the screen (in my case, I selected a previously unused device), "Send" dims (becomes available). Click Submit. You calmly (another problem with the user interface) returned to the previous page, and the “Download” and “Change” buttons disappeared, and the “Status” should be indicated in the status column!
After a while, I updated the window (rebooted) (I don’t know if it will be auto-refrehed) ... and saw that the status column was changed to Active.
Now ... I uploaded a new profile (the one that the darn page does not tell you is new, and does not correspond with the expiration date so you can tell yourself ... The third drawback of the user interface :)
I downloaded the profile, deleted the old profile from the list in the Xcode Organizer window, and then dragged the new one into the Xcode Organizer window and ... voila, the Organizer shows a new expiration date (about 3 months from today).
Hope this helps,
Cupertino Stan, California, USA