The future of web development (RIA vs. traditional HTML)

Question

How do you see the future of web development? Will HTML, CSS and Ajax continue to lead web development, or do you see the transition to Rich Internet Applications (flex, silverlight and JavaFX)?

I am not looking for a clear answer, and I know that you are programmers, not prophets, but a reasonable analysis of how you see current trends in web development will be appreciated. Links to such debates on the Internet are also welcome.

I ask this question, as we are now evaluating technologies to completely rewrite our GUI. Since this is a relatively large (virtually huge) product, we tend to do something slow. We need to consider where we see the web going.

I am interested in the near future (in 3-5 years).

Answer 1

The trend in web development is to move more towards the client. This has several consequences:

• As the code base on the client grows, the infrastructure will become indispensable. You will see a significant increase in the use of infrastructure in all directions.
• The server is becoming less and less connected with page rendering and is gradually becoming more a service provider. The new material that I am collecting today only speaks to the server through JSON-RPC, and, in my personal opinion, it is developing faster and scales much better.

What framework will "rule the nose" is hard to guess, but if I had to ...

• JavaFX can be safely ignored, it is no good.
• Web applications will be primarily based on javascript. For some types of applications, flex and silverlight will be the chosen solution (for example, video, games), but for most business applications there is simply no edge.
• GWT will become the platform for developing enterprise Java applications.
• The number of projects that "fold their" code is reduced to zero. It's just not worth the effort anymore, given the quality of the frameworks there.

As part of a subset of the javascript framework (GWT discounting), I assume the following:

• JQuery will remain the main solution, but it will be complemented by extensive collections of components (JQuery UI) to match what other guys can do.
• Dojo, YUI and Ext are going to fish in the same pond, and everyone will work well in the market.
• The prototype is likely to remain the main player for increasing the website, but will not be related to web applications.
• You will see that several frameworks are growing in the market due to everything else. The market is going to standardize several major players. This will happen primarily in the labor market, and employers prefer "standard" platforms "regardless of what the new guy likes."

Answer 2

HTML5 is really amazing, and the latest Javascript implementations will significantly increase performance, so I expect the RIA framework to have a hard time beating a new generation of HTML + JS + CSS applications. (Although HTML5 has not yet been distributed, some of its functions are already available, for example, using plugins such as Gears, and frameworks such as Dojo do a lot of work transparently, using the best implementation at hand - a plugin, native or w / when or for any given functionality).

I really expect that Silverlight (and its Moonlight free software clone clone) will get some of the developers ’mental intelligence - mainly because developers use their favorite languages ​​for web applications. But I also predict that this will remain a niche. (Just remember that “it’s always difficult to make predictions, especially about the future” ;-).

Answer 3

In the near future, HTML + CSS + Javascript will be controlled using Flash, Silverlight et.al is used for things that HTML just can't (or if you're Microsoft for things where you want to annoy non-Windows users)

Answer 4

I believe that HTML / CSS / JavaScript will lead the dance for years to come. Even with their flaws (how many people are stuck with design tables to not have a suitable alternative), you have nothing more to use if you like things like SEO.

Flash / Silverlight works well for projects where there is another way for new people to discover these projects other than search results. For example, eBay and Amazon really do not need their content to be fully indexed on the Internet. People already know them or come from affiliate links, so they may have rewritten their interfaces to become very rich.

If you care about SEO visibility, you better spend your resources on optimizing this aspect. If not, just take whatever you want. However, you must be sure that your current and future users will want to install Flash or Silverlight plugins. For example, I have disabled the Flash plugin in IE, because it freezes the system and resets IE daily. I believe that only YouTube was safe for me. As for Silverlight, I have not installed it yet and I see no reason for this.

Answer 5

It really depends on what you want from your GUI. If it will be very difficult, with a lot of interactive elements, fancy transitions and rich media, then I think that Flash will still be a way to go for the next couple of years (a large installation base, which is present in many corporate environments). However, if you are primarily concerned with dynamic data and smaller eye candy animations, HTML / CSS / Javascript will definitely do its job without relying on third-party plugins. Another bonus for HTML stuff is a large pool of developers from which you can benefit (it’s hard to find good Flash people in my personal experience. Good ones already have jobs;)).

As for Mastermind’s interest in indexing content, Adobe is working with Google to make Flash indexing with a headless player, see this Google blog post:

http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2008/06/google-learns-to-crawl-flash.html

In the end, HTML / CSS / Javascript will be capable of everything that is in Flash / Silverlight. We have seen huge leaps in Javascript performance already from Chrome, Safari and Firefox. And HTML5 adds a lot of rich content features (i.e. video) that use Flash / Silverlight. However, IE will always be a problem for rich HTML content. And if you target your business, IE6 is likely to need support over the next few years.

Answer 6

If your goal is a public website, then the future will be HTML, although not necessarily "traditional" HTML. Environments such as jQuery, enhanced general browser features (such as cross-domain messaging) and increased average PC speeds can lead to a richer user experience without resorting to things like Flash or Silverlight.

Recent advances in standards such as HTML5 and CSS 3 sound promising, but I can't see how they affect the promise on a 3-5 year time scale. If the industry does not find a way to convince the majority to abandon IE.

Consequently, for publicly available current HTML / CSS / Javascript will continue to be the main place for web development.

The intranet will be a completely different ball of wax, Silverlight and its community are not yet ripe, but I predict that SL will become very popular in this arena.

Answer 7

Some recent thoughts on Silverlight, in particular, as well as Javascript, Flash, and JavaFX: Battle for the rich client .

Answer 8

I believe that there will always be a place for web applications that are simply / quickly encoded and do not need a fancy interface.

For applications that need all the user interface settings, Flash / Silverlight / RIA will continue to evolve to provide more and more rich graphics on the Internet. We also see a similar evolution on the Windows side with WPF, etc.

In both cases, I believe that most applications will continue to be developed using which infrastructure is the fastest to encode, since most applications are internal business LOBs and simply need to be functional.

I would suggest you consider a hybrid approach - mainly use modern technologies (HTML / CSS / Ajax / etc.), but there are some sections of the site on which the user interface can benefit most from it, Silverlight or other Technologies really shine RIA. Thus, you get the best of both worlds, get bling where you need it, but do not increase the risks of the project.

Answer 9

Both technologies have advantages and disadvantages. Some things are simply impossible to do, like nice audio / video anti-aliasing in DHTML, but many things are not needed to create in Flash technology. Google still doesn't like Flash pages like pages without a real content and accessibility issue.

I think that nothing will change in a big way. Perhaps Silverlight will gain another 5% of the market share, flash will lose 2%, but nothing really big.